The Watchers

The Watchers

Monday 22 January 2018

Awards Season 2018: Tez's Official Academy Award Nomination Predictions



Tomorrow (23rd January), the nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced.

This year, there'll be a mix of live presentations from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater, with pre-taped category introductions, which will only be featured in the first half of the announcement (which generally covers technical awards, such as cinematography, make-up and hairstyling, costume design, and visual effects). 

As has been my practice for the last few years, I like to try and predict who will be nominated (this is done for Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting awards). Below is my list of who I think will be named tomorrow.

NB. Since the 2010 ceremony, the Academy rules state that there could be anywhere between five and ten Best Picture nominees. I have selected ten films. If the total number of films nominated is less than ten, but one of the movies selected is named in my list of ten, I will count it as a successful prediction.

BEST PICTURE
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape Of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape Of Water)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)

BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins (The Shape Of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape Of Water)
Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape Of Water)

Usually a score of 15 is adequate, but given the fact that there could be anywhere between 5 and 10 Best Picture awards, I'ill be happy with a prediction of 18 or higher. Last year, amazingly, I got 32 out of 34. I'm not expecting such a high mark this time round. 

There could be potential 'upsets' in many categories. I went with the five DGA nominees, but you could easily see one or more of Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name), Steven Spielberg (The Post) or Ridley Scott (All The Money In The World) in Best Director in place of one or more of the names above. 

Whilst Best Actor is fairly solid, there could be a surprise nomination for Tom Hanks for The Post; given recent allegations, Franco could well lose his nomination if that does happen.  

I could have picked a number of actresses to fill the fifth slot for Best Actress (Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie and Ronan have been a solid core of nominees throughout). Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game), Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) and Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool) have all given superb performances. In the end, though, the Academy does love Meryl Streep (and she is particularly good in The Post).

For Best Supporting Actor, there could be a surprise nod for Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri or (which sadly seems very unlikely) Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name.

Holly Hunter's supporting performance in The Big Sick has also drawn a lot of awards love, so she could easily be nominated. I wouldn't like to say which of the three from Blige, Chau or Spencer wouldn't then make the cut. Janney and Metcalf have been consistent nominees throughout so it's virtually guaranteed to see them mentioned. 

So what do you reckon? Am I on the right track or barking up the wrong tree? If you were a member of the Academy, who would you vote for?

I'll update the blog with my thoughts on the official nominees tomorrow afternoon. 

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